Coffee Conversation

The Avengers: Endgame hits a new record in its opening as it took a domestic record of US$156.7 million on its first day including Thursday night previews and set for an all-time high opening this weekend. The previous record was held by "Star Wars: The Force Awakens", which earned US$119 million in 2015.

Endgame vs Star Wars, whoever wins, Disney still win. That's content dominance

But whether it is Endgame or Star Wars, the one that is set to benefit is definitely Walt Disney Co. And it is reflected in its share price.

Compared to a year ago, Walt Disney has seen its share price hit an all-time closing high of US$139.92, a gain of 43.25% from a year ago, which significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index that has seen a total return of 12.32% during the same period. And if you don't think that is impressive, the 12-month trailing PE for the Mickey Mouse company still stood at 20.2 times only, which is pretty reasonable given a company that has a dividend yield of about 1.3%, strong content base and embarking on a new streaming services as well.

Disney at its all-time closing

And if you have been to the cinema for The Endgame recently, chances are that you will see plenty of trailers that are also distributed by Disney. Aladdin, Lion King, the recently concluded Jumbo as well as the upcoming Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in December this year.

So, really, whether it is the Endgame taking the top record or would it be the upcoming Star Wars: The Rise of the Skywalker, it will be Disney that is reaping the return.

Success on blockbuster will put CEO's high salary issues aside for now

The thing about the stock market is that people tend to forget about some of the problems of a company in good times. For Disney, its success on the blockbuster office will help to put the issues surrounding the high salary for its CEO, Bob Iger aside for now.

While you might not think US$65.6 million compensation for a CEO is an issue, Abigail Disney, the granddaughter and grandniece of brothers and co-founders Roy and Walt Disney—called the pay ratio “insane” in a tweet on Sunday.

“What on earth would be wrong with shifting some of the profits—the fruits of these employees’ labor— to some folks other than those at the top?” Disney wrote.

That of course might have to be taken with the context. Disney has a revenue of US$59 billion and a net profit of US$13 billion.

The new challenge: Streaming Services

Then, there is the big challenge: the streaming competition when Disney unveil Disney+, its new streaming services, which will be a challenge to Netflix.

Disney+ sets to add into streaming services competition

It is still a question mark whether Disney's streaming services can take off but at US$6.99 per month, that seems like a very competitive pricing even for Netflix. Investors need to keep in mind that Netflix's strategy has already bear fruits and is seeing return on its investment based on its financial results. Disney's entry into this space could give them more room to grow given the large content library that it owns especially after the acquisition of Fox.

So, will you buy Disney now that the share price has run up? As usual, I wouldn't chase after stocks that have run up but Disney is a company that I love. If I were to invest into the company five years ago, I would be seeing a double-digit return annually, excluding the dividend. I doubt the rally can sustain though given the sharp jump in share prices but I believe it makes sense for investors to accumulate its shares in the long run.

Just go to the mall today and you will see so much of Disney brands in a lot of varieties of products. While you might not be very happy about the excessive pay given to its CEO, the company has not neglected its shareholders.

Today is supposed to be the birthday of a friend or acquaintance that I hardly know. We talked mostly on the phones for work purpose and we grew closer through our conversation on the phone. We joked about the stock market and how some of the government's policies etc. But he's no longer here today. He passed away at the beginning of this year.

We were supposed to meet up before that but due to hectic schedules, busy deadlines and meetings, we ended up postponing it to a point that we'll never ever be able meet one another face-to-face. During the Chinese New Year this year, I got a Whatsapp message from his relative, informing me about his death due to heart attack. I was shocked but the reality hits me. Life is fragile. Just because existence seems so easy for most of us, it doesn't make it worthless.

Everyday is a Gift from God to us, whether it be one of those days that we call it great or one of those we call it bad, unlucky or even the Monday blues.

The fact that we are unconsciously taking in oxygen every few seconds with our eyes making rapid movement every now and then, with so many muscles working at the same time. The brain, blood flow, every single cells that work simultaneously to ensure the continuation of our very existence.

And yet, for most part of our lives, we failed to appreciate it. It reminds me of the movie Click (2006), where Adam Sandler plays Michael Newman, who comes into possession of a remote control that controls time. To cut the story short, he basically skip all the parts of his life that he felt boring, insignificance. Eventually, he learns to cherish the moment with his family when the remote control eventually skip most of those moment.

My point: take your time and appreciate every moment of it. The conversation with your old men, your spouses, your siblings, your friends, and even your bosses. Because everyday is a gift. There is not a single day that would be the same as yesterday. Even though we have Monday, Tuesday or even Wednesday every week, each of the single days are unique, none are the same.

I hope it makes sense to you because whatever that passed, remains in the past, at least until we discover time travel. Sorry if I bore you with my thoughts. Just something that comes into my mind.

"I know that it is not fair. That person is a criminal but he was able to get away free from all these allegations. It's obvious that he did it."

That is some of the thoughts we have when we see people that we deemed as guilty get away from the court's judgement. It is indeed true that there are a lot of injustice at times but regardless of that, the idea that people are "innocent until proven guilty" should stand, and I mean every single time. It is okay for us to have an opinion, to talk about some of these loopholes or suspicion we have but it is not right to say someone who has yet to be found guilty as guilty.

While a lot of people dislike US President Donald Trump (I'm not one of those), there are a few key things that makes sense even though there is an outcry from those who question Trump's decisions and policies (valid points on a lot of the policies that seemed like a political play and I agreed on some of it as well).

Is Saudi guilty of Khashoggi's disappearance?

For example, the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi in Saudi Arabia. His disappearance and presumed death has caused an international outcry and strained relations between Saudi Arabia and the West. Turkish pro-government newspaper Yeni Safak has published what it said were details from the audio, including that his torturers severed Khashoggi’s fingers during an interrogation and later beheaded and dismembered him. That's horrible isn't it? Yes, it is. It is very horrible but the Saudi has denied the Turkish allegations that Khashoggi was murdered and his body was removed from the consulate after he entered on Oct 2.

So, who do you believe? Well, the international outcry is good in a way as it keeps such a crisis and scandal in check but does it mean that the Saudi is guilty by default? First of all, while there is a friendly economic relationship between Saudi and Turkey, the political relationship has become rather intense.

The 2017 Qatar diplomatic crisis is one of those obvious examples. Turkey supported Qatar against Saudi Arabia in the ongoing diplomatic dispute. Turkey and a resurgent Iran is viewed as trying to advance a distinct agenda: rebuilding military and economic beachheads along the eastern flank of the Arabian peninsula from Oman to Southern Iraq. Saudi in response has threatened to impose sanctions against Turkey and discussed on topic to curb "Turkish expansionist policy. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Saudi of being non-Islamic. They also deployed troops to defend the government of Qatar from an attempted coup by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

My point here is that there is an obvious conflict of interest when the Turkish government announced that they have proof that Khashoggi was murdered by the Saudi.

And here is what Trump said in interview: "Here we go again with you're guilty until proven innocent," Trump said in the interview, comparing the allegations against Saudi Arabia to the sexual misconduct allegations from multiple women against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearing.

And while I have a feeling that the allegations are true, mine is only perception formed from reading the news, social media and other comments. Is there really indeed evidence to support the claims? We'll have to wait but for now, I think innocent until proven should stand.

Kavanaugh a sex predator?

And the case against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Three women stepped up and and accuse Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct.

Christine Blasey Ford said that Kavanaugh tried to rape her when they were both in their high school. That is more than 35 years ago. And she told the world she was 100% certain that Kavanaugh attacked her. Then there is Deborah Ramirez. She alleged that Kavanaugh once exposed himself during a drinking game when they were students at Yale. And the third accuser, Julie Swetnick claimed to have witnessed Kavanaugh orchestrating mass gang-rapes when he was 15 years old.

But then all of these are cases that happened so long ago. Are there solid evidence that Kavanaugh did it? I don't think so. Take Ford's case. She's a registered Democrat, according to a report by Washington Post. Then there is another statement that I find it to be extremely doubtful: Ford said she considered herself a reluctant witness who came forward out of civic duty. My question is simple. Kavanaugh has been a judge for a long time. If it's out of civic duty, shouldn't she be coming out much earlier?

But that aside, are there strong evidences that Kavanaugh was guilty? 35 years ago. Both have drink alcohol. What's your take? I only can say this. Even if you think he is guilty, the same should be applied: innocent until proven guilty.

I know it's disheartening and it's true that sexual allegations are difficult to prove. But this doesn't mean someone is guilty by default in the event of allegations.

CR7 accused of rape.

And is Kavanaugh alone? No, there is also the latest Cristiano Ronaldo's case. He was accused of rape. And there is a photo of him partying with the woman who accused her of the act. Am I defending a rapist and a sex predator?

I think I'm only making a simple point: everyone should be innocent until proven guilty. Yes, you can have your views that he or she is guilty but the law shouldn't be biased just because the headlines say so. Is there an impact on people like Cristiano Ronaldo? Of course there is. Just read at what some of the sponsors are saying.

Of course, I believe it's likely that both will eventually rush for a settlement. CR7 to put the bad news behind to avoid the impact to the brand and the woman, Kathryn Mayorga would likely to accept a settlement on the basis that the law suit will drag on too long and affect her. (Look, these part of it are simply assumptions that I made)

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